Nations League A 2022-23: group stage odds, analysis and winner picks

The 2022-2023 season of the UEFA Nations League A seems to be quite unpredictable. Only Group A2 is yet to play the fifth round. Meanwhile, other groups sit in anticipation of the sixth.
The Netherlands have the highest points in UEFA Nations League A

The Netherlands have the highest points in UEFA Nations League A

by   Alex Weaver

The countries in the league include Germany, Spain, Italy, England, Hungary, Portugal, Czech Republic, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Belgium, Wales and the champions of last season, France.

At the moment, the Netherlands are at the top of Group A4. With 13 points, they seem to have amassed the highest number of points in the league. Meanwhile, fortune seems not to smile on the Welsh team, as they’ve been able to amass a meager one point, from all their five matches.

We have reviewed all the main contenders for the groups and their betting odds.

UEFA Nations League Group A1: odds and tips

Denmark is second in Group A1 with three wins and two losses from its five games so far. Croatia — the World Cup finalist — is at the top of the table with just two wins, a draw and one loss.

They are the two major contenders for finishing on top of Group A1.

Croatia national football team

Croatia comes out on top as the favorite to win group A1. The odds of the team winning the group are presently set at 1.73 (8/11; -137). After defeating Denmark, the team has managed to become group leader.

It has its attacking gameplay centered around Real Madrid’s midfielder, Luka Modric. And of course the goalies, Osijek’s Ivica Ivusic and Dinamo Zagreb’s Dominik Livakovic, have been at the top of their game, helping the team attain the third highest save rate in the competition. One that includes a penalty save against France!

Despite that, Croatia has conceded an average of one goal per match so far. While it’s not actually the worst, it’s something the Croatians may want to step up, considering how lacking they are, attack-wise.

Denmark national football team

Denmark pecks at Croatia’s heels with points lesser by just a number. The Danish team happens to feature in the top five teams expected to win the Nations League with odds of 8.00 (7/1; +700), a probability of 13%. The team is deemed to be a better team than Croatia, despite conceding a total of 5 goals, so far.

Tottenham Hotspur midfielder, Hojbjerg, is one of the most outstanding players on the team. In five games, he has scored a goal for the Danish and assisted another, which FC Kobenhavn’s striker, Cornelius successfully converted to a goal. Unfortunately, Cornelius, the team’s top goalscorer has been unable to continue playing due to a muscle injury. Midfielder Christian Eriksen of Manchester United has also been on fire.

The attack game of the Dynamites is easily the second best in the group, as they boast an average of 4.4 shots on target, per match.

France and Austria national football teams

The French have been nothing short of a disappointment having amassed just two points from two draws in the competition. They are officially out of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League, no matter what they pull off.

On the other hand, Austria still has a meager chance of around 1%, with odds for qualification set at 70.00 (69/1; +6900).

Nations League Group A1 winner pick

The group winner is between Croatia and Denmark. They both have gathered the highest points, in the group, at 10 points and nine points respectively. To remain at the top of the group, the Croatians must either win their next matchup with Austria or their contenders — Denmark — must lose to the French.

The FIFA number 15th have won in their last five away games. Winning Austria does not seem like a feat they won’t be able to pull off, even if Denmark wins its matchup too.

The Danish Dynamites too have managed to remain unbeaten in 16 away games. Combined with their 83.2% passing accuracy and impressive 2.6 average save per match, they are very likely to defeat Mbappe’s motherland.

I am of the opinion that Croatia will be the Group A1 winner. Apparently, I am not alone. According to popular bookies, the odds of Croatia winning Group A1 are set at 1.73 (8/11; -137), which is equal to chances of about 58%. While those of Denmark are just behind at 2.00 (1/1; -100), with a probability of 50%.

UEFA Nations League Group A2: winner prediction and odds

Group A2 is currently led by an outstanding Spanish team, with eight points from two wins and two draws. Portugal is just behind with seven points.

Spain national football team

La Furia Roja stands clear as the favourite team to win Group A2. The team’s prowess has been so impressive that punters wager on it as the second most likely winner of the UEFA Nations League. Its odds to win the league are set at 5.00 (4/1; +400), which equals a 20% probability. The Spanish team happens to also be among the only 3 unbeaten teams in the UEFA Nations League.

PSG winger, Pablo Sarabia is unarguably the most exceptional player on the team. Age has apparently got nothing on him as he’s been able to net two goals and assist a third, for the team. Real Madrid winger, Asensio has also impressively assisted two goals, in his three matches.

Spain plays a total dominating possession game and it has a whooping average possession of 70.4% — the best in the league!

Portugal national football team

Fernando Santos’ Portugal, despite being a past winner, is 7th favourite to win the league this season. Odds are set at 9.00 (8/1; +800), which equals a probability of about 11%. The Portuguese have two wins and one draw from their four games so far.

Manchester United striker, Cristiano Ronaldo, has not failed to play to expectation. He has two goals and one assist to his name; and has accurately delivered 92% of his passes. Manchester City’s left back, Cancelo, follows closely. In four matches, he has scored two goals and delivered an assist.

The Navigators confidently dominate attacking stats. They have the most shots on target, at 6.3 per match and the most accurate crosses per match, at 6.3.

Czech Republic and Switzerland national football teams

Both Czech Republic and Switzerland have been quite mediocre, but there’s not much one can do when placed in the same group with such powerhouses as Portugal and Spain. Safe to say, they were set up to fail. They have both conceded seven goals, in just four games. Only one team in League A has conceded more.

Nations League Group A2 winner pick

The winner of the group lies between Spain and Portugal. Both teams have amassed a total of eight and seven points, respectively. Quite surely, Spain will win, in the group.

To remain at the top of the table, Spain has to remain undefeated in its next matchup with the Swiss. If it can’t defeat Switzerland, then, Portugal must also lose to Czech Republic. Honestly, these two phenomena are almost impossible.

Czech Republic does not stand a chance against Ronaldo’s country and in their last two head-to-heads, Kuchta’s team has suffered shameful defeat.

The matchup between Spain and Switzerland too can be easily predicted. The Spanish have remained unbeaten and this does not seem like it will end any time soon, with a possession of 70.4% and an 89.6% pass success. Switzerland’s 12.3 interceptions per match is clearly no match for Spain.

I believe Spain will win Group A2. According to top betting sites, the odds in favor of Spain are 1.57 (4/7; -175). The probability of the team winning is about 64%. Meanwhile, the odds of the Portuguese winning are set at 2.38 (11/8; +138). They have a 42% chance.

UEFA Nations League A Group 3: winner prediction and odds

Quite upsettingly, in a group where teams like Germany, Italy and England are present, Hungary sits comfortably at the top of the table. Italy comes just behind. Germany comes next. And the country ruled by the late Queen comes last, quite disappointingly.

Germany national football team

The Germans, despite scoring one of the highest number of goals in the competition so far, have just one win and three draws. This has had them stuck at six points. In spite of that, they are third favourites to win the league, with a probability of 18%. Their odds are set at 5.5 (9/2; +450).

The bulk of the country’s star players is from Borussia, Dortmund and the phenomenal Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich’s midfielder, Joshua Kimmich, seems to have distinguished himself in the team. With two goals, one assist and six chances created, he’s the most rated player in Germany. Following closely after is Borussia’s winger, Hofmann, with two goals.

The Germans are a mainly attacking side. In the average possession stats, they are only second to Spain. They also have the fourth highest number of goals so far.

Italy national football team

Italy doesn’t look like the team that played 37 games unbeaten, less than a year ago. It has managed to win two matches, draw two and lose one, amassing an eight-point total. Quite surprisingly, it remains punters’ 7th favourites to win the league with odds: 11.00 (10/1; +1000). This gives the country a 9% chance of winning the league.

There seems to be no exceptional player in the entire team. However, midfielders Barella of Inter and Raspadoli of Napoli, have scored one goal each, for the Italians. Goalie Donnarumma of PSG has also saved the team countless times, making the Italians have the third highest save — 19 — in the league.

Hungary national football team

Despite being at the top of the table, our surprise leader places third at qualification. Its probability of winning the group is 5.5 (9/2; +450) with a probability of 18%. The team has three wins, one draw and one loss from its five games.

Leipzig midfielder, Szoboszlai, is the most rated player on the team. He has scored a goal for the Hungarians and has created five chances.

The National Eleven have done incredibly well to keep the other three powerful teams at bay and have conceded just three goals — only Portugal has conceded less. Combined with a total of 74 interceptions, defense seems to be their forte.

England national football team

The Three Lions have been disgraceful, to say the least. They have suffered humiliating home and away defeats against Hungary and two draws against Germany and Italy, accounting for the only two points they have to show. They cannot win the group.

Nations League Group A3 winner pick

The winner of the group is either Hungary or Italy. If Hungary defeats Italy in their upcoming matchup, then the Hungarians win the group. If they don’t, however, the Italians will go on to the championship playoffs.

The winner of the group largely depends on who wins the match. In their last H2H, Hungary conceded two goals to lose to Italy. Also, Italy won’t be playing at the World Cup this year. Winning at the group stage and (probably) winning the entire league will definitely be high on the team’s list of priorities.

I believe the Italians will win Group A3. The probability of them winning is about 20%. Bookies set their odds of winning at 5.00 (4/1; +400). The odds and probability of Hungary winning is also the same.

UEFA Nations League A Group 4: winner prediction and odds

Netherlands has Group A4 in a choke-hold. They have three points more than the next team, the largest point gap between first and second in the league.

Netherlands national football team

The Netherlands are currently the best-rated team. They have four wins, no loss and one draw against Poland in their last five games, accounting for a total of 13 points.

The Barcelona forward, Memphis Depay has the highest goal contribution in the whole league with three goals and two assists. He has also created an astonishing nine chances. The closest to him is midfielder Denzel of Inter, who has two goals, one assist and two created chances to his name.

The attack game of Netherlands is unmatched and the team’s average of 2.6 goals scored per match testifies to this. They are the highest goal scorers of the league.

Belgium national football team

Belgium has three wins, one draw and one loss in their five games so far; equaling a total of 10 points. The team has scored the highest number of goals in the competition only behind group leaders Netherlands. The Red Devils are second favourites to qualify and fourth favourites to win the league. They have about a 12% probability of winning the league with odds placed at 8.5 (15/2; +750).

Manchester City’s midfielder, Kevin De Bruyne, with two goals, one assists and eleven created chances, seems like the talisman of the team. However, the team owes much of its highest-goals-scored title to Fenerbahce’s striker, Batshuayi. The 28-year old has scored three goals, assisted three and created five chances.

It is easy to know that attack is the strength of The Red Devils. They have the third highest average possession of 63.9%. They also come just behind Portugal, averaging 5.8 shots on target, per match. And then, they have the highest big chances created in the league — 13.

Poland and Wales national football teams

The Welsh are already out of the competition and don’t have any chance of qualification again. Meanwhile, the Polish will hope that Barcelona’s per-time central forward, Robert Lewandowski, can help them challenge for the top spot with one game to go.

Nations League Group A4 winner pick

For the most part, the Netherlands and Belgium are in a tight struggle to win the group. Both of them have some of the highest points in the entire league — 13 and 10, respectively.

The upcoming match between the Netherlands and Belgium seems to be a major deciding factor for who wins the group. If the Netherlands win the match, they win the group. And if Belgium wins the match and ends up having a higher goal difference than their opponents, they win the group.

However, the latter is almost impossible, as Netherlands haven’t lost in their last 14 matches. The most recent H2H between both teams saw Belgium conceding four goals and only managing to net one. The match is going to be a tight one; but the Netherlands stats of scoring 2.6 goals per match and conceding just 1.2 reveals that it’ll (almost) be impossible for the Belgians to come out victorious.

My take is that the Netherlands will win the group. The odds that support my take are set at 1.01 (1/100; -9999.9) — a whooping probability of 97%. Meanwhile, the chance of Belgium winning the group is a meager 3%. Odds in favour of the country are set at 26.00 (25/1; 2500).

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